Sacred Heart

Conference:	NEC
Expected RPI:	321.0
Current RPI:	321
Expected SOS:	328
Current SOS:	328
Current Record:	9-21
Expected Record:	9-21
Current Conf Record:	5-13
Expected Conf Record:	5-13
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:	0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:	0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:	0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:	0-8
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:	9-10
Current OOC Record:	4-8
Expected OOC Record:	4-8
Expected OOC RPI:	308
Expected OOC SOS:	330

RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final Record	Expected RPI	Probability
9-21	321.0	100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:

Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Sacred Heart.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

Date	Opponent (Expected RPI)	Conf	Location	Score	Outcome	Prob(W)
11-10	Holy Cross (265.0)	Pat	H	64-69	L	0%
11-14	Boston College (96.0)	ACC	A	73-53	L	0%
11-18	Saint Peter's (251.0)	MAAC	N	70-61	L	0%
11-19	Maine (338.0)	AE	N	69-68	W	100%
11-24	Northwestern (168.0)	B10	A	81-50	L	0%
11-29	UMass Lowell (289.0)	AE	A	80-87	W	100%
12-2	St. John's (92.0)	BE	A	90-55	L	0%
12-5	Dartmouth (334.0)	Ivy	H	79-73	W	100%
12-9	Lafayette (311.0)	Pat	H	62-50	W	100%
12-11	Hartford (198.0)	AE	A	86-72	L	0%
12-17	Binghamton (320.0)	AE	H	48-51	L	0%
12-22	Providence (32.0)	BE	A	89-75	L	0%
12-29	St. Francis NY (276.0)	NEC	H	68-73	L	0%
12-31	Fairleigh Dickinson (254.0)	NEC	H	66-65	W	100%
1-4	Wagner (109.0)	NEC	A	69-63	L	0%
1-6	Bryant (341.0)	NEC	H	74-79	L	0%
1-11	Mount St. Mary's (225.0)	NEC	A	81-75	L	0%
1-13	St. Francis NY (276.0)	NEC	A	52-92	W	100%
1-18	Robert Morris (196.0)	NEC	H	60-74	L	0%
1-20	St. Francis PA (178.0)	NEC	H	60-73	L	0%
1-26	Robert Morris (196.0)	NEC	A	64-56	L	0%
1-28	St. Francis PA (178.0)	NEC	A	72-71	L	0%
2-1	LIU Brooklyn (232.0)	NEC	H	60-69	L	0%
2-3	Central Connecticut (263.0)	NEC	H	67-54	W	100%
2-8	Fairleigh Dickinson (254.0)	NEC	A	77-67	L	0%
2-10	Central Connecticut (263.0)	NEC	A	50-67	W	100%
2-15	Wagner (109.0)	NEC	H	84-99	L	0%
2-17	Mount St. Mary's (225.0)	NEC	H	69-74	L	0%
2-22	Bryant (341.0)	NEC	A	84-94	W	100%
2-24	LIU Brooklyn (232.0)	NEC	A	88-77	L	0%

Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.

Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Sacred Heart's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES

Sacred Heart's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against Sacred Heart.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.

Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.

Team	Conf	Curr Wgt	Fut Wgt	Curr W/L	Exp W/L	Curr Impact	Exp Impact
Sacred Heart	NEC	26.31	26.31	30.82	30.82	-10.09	-10.09
LIU Brooklyn	NEC	4.52	4.52	48.39	48.39	-0.15	-0.15
Wagner	NEC	4.42	4.42	67.86	67.86	1.58	1.58
Central Connecticut	NEC	4.40	4.40	46.67	46.67	-0.29	-0.29
Fairleigh Dickinson	NEC	4.37	4.37	37.04	37.04	-1.13	-1.13
Robert Morris	NEC	4.33	4.33	45.16	45.16	-0.42	-0.42
St. Francis NY	NEC	4.28	4.28	37.04	37.04	-1.11	-1.11
Bryant	NEC	4.27	4.27	6.90	6.90	-3.68	-3.68
Mount St. Mary's	NEC	4.26	4.26	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
St. Francis PA	NEC	4.26	4.26	53.85	53.85	0.33	0.33
Hartford	AE	2.12	2.12	56.67	56.67	0.28	0.28
UMass Lowell	AE	1.99	1.99	39.29	39.29	-0.43	-0.43
Maine	AE	1.94	1.94	13.79	13.79	-1.41	-1.41
Saint Peter's	MAAC	1.89	1.89	41.94	41.94	-0.30	-0.30
Binghamton	AE	1.88	1.88	28.57	28.57	-0.81	-0.81
Boston College	ACC	1.83	1.83	54.55	54.55	0.17	0.17
Holy Cross	Pat	1.78	1.78	36.67	36.67	-0.47	-0.47
Dartmouth	Ivy	1.77	1.77	24.00	24.00	-0.92	-0.92
St. John's	BE	1.77	1.77	45.16	45.16	-0.17	-0.17
Lafayette	Pat	1.75	1.75	31.03	31.03	-0.66	-0.66
Providence	BE	1.74	1.74	60.61	60.61	0.37	0.37
Northwestern	B10	1.69	1.69	43.33	43.33	-0.23	-0.23
New Hampshire	AE	0.36	0.36	27.59	27.59	-0.16	-0.16
Stony Brook	AE	0.36	0.36	38.71	38.71	-0.08	-0.08
Brown	Ivy	0.36	0.36	38.46	38.46	-0.08	-0.08
Albany	AE	0.34	0.34	67.74	67.74	0.12	0.12
American	Pat	0.31	0.31	20.00	20.00	-0.18	-0.18
Vermont	AE	0.28	0.28	78.79	78.79	0.16	0.16
Loyola MD	Pat	0.28	0.28	26.67	26.67	-0.13	-0.13
UMBC	AE	0.28	0.28	67.74	67.74	0.10	0.10
Navy	Pat	0.25	0.25	61.29	61.29	0.06	0.06
Seton Hall	BE	0.24	0.24	65.62	65.62	0.08	0.08
Rider	MAAC	0.24	0.24	70.97	70.97	0.10	0.10
Lehigh	Pat	0.22	0.22	51.72	51.72	0.01	0.01
NJIT	ASun	0.22	0.22	42.86	42.86	-0.03	-0.03
Colgate	Pat	0.22	0.22	58.06	58.06	0.04	0.04
Rutgers	B10	0.22	0.22	42.42	42.42	-0.03	-0.03
Georgetown	BE	0.21	0.21	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Army	Pat	0.20	0.20	41.38	41.38	-0.03	-0.03
Notre Dame	ACC	0.19	0.19	57.58	57.58	0.03	0.03
Iona	MAAC	0.19	0.19	60.61	60.61	0.04	0.04
Siena	MAAC	0.18	0.18	25.00	25.00	-0.09	-0.09
DePaul	BE	0.18	0.18	35.48	35.48	-0.05	-0.05
Penn St.	B10	0.17	0.17	61.76	61.76	0.04	0.04
Quinnipiac	MAAC	0.17	0.17	36.36	36.36	-0.05	-0.05
Boston University	Pat	0.17	0.17	46.67	46.67	-0.01	-0.01
Marquette	BE	0.16	0.16	59.38	59.38	0.03	0.03
Villanova	BE	0.15	0.15	88.24	88.24	0.12	0.12
North Carolina St.	ACC	0.15	0.15	65.62	65.62	0.05	0.05
Creighton	BE	0.15	0.15	64.52	64.52	0.04	0.04
Xavier	BE	0.15	0.15	84.85	84.85	0.11	0.11
Cornell	Ivy	0.15	0.15	40.74	40.74	-0.03	-0.03
Princeton	Ivy	0.15	0.15	42.86	42.86	-0.02	-0.02
Louisville	ACC	0.14	0.14	60.61	60.61	0.03	0.03
Fordham	A10	0.14	0.14	29.03	29.03	-0.06	-0.06
Canisius	MAAC	0.13	0.13	65.62	65.62	0.04	0.04
Fairfield	MAAC	0.13	0.13	51.52	51.52	0.00	0.00
Yale	Ivy	0.12	0.12	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Columbia	Ivy	0.12	0.12	26.92	26.92	-0.05	-0.05
Niagara	MAAC	0.11	0.11	59.38	59.38	0.02	0.02
Maryland	B10	0.11	0.11	58.06	58.06	0.02	0.02
Manhattan	MAAC	0.11	0.11	45.16	45.16	-0.01	-0.01
Duke	ACC	0.11	0.11	78.79	78.79	0.06	0.06
Bucknell	Pat	0.11	0.11	73.53	73.53	0.05	0.05
Duquesne	A10	0.11	0.11	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Massachusetts	A10	0.11	0.11	39.39	39.39	-0.02	-0.02
Coppin St.	MEAC	0.11	0.11	15.62	15.62	-0.07	-0.07
La Salle	A10	0.10	0.10	40.62	40.62	-0.02	-0.02
Butler	BE	0.10	0.10	60.61	60.61	0.02	0.02
Penn	Ivy	0.09	0.09	74.19	74.19	0.04	0.04
Harvard	Ivy	0.09	0.09	56.67	56.67	0.01	0.01
Morgan St.	MEAC	0.08	0.08	36.67	36.67	-0.02	-0.02
Wisconsin	B10	0.08	0.08	45.45	45.45	-0.01	-0.01
Missouri	SEC	0.08	0.08	61.29	61.29	0.02	0.02
Marist	MAAC	0.08	0.08	19.35	19.35	-0.05	-0.05
Pittsburgh	ACC	0.08	0.08	25.00	25.00	-0.04	-0.04
Texas Tech	B12	0.08	0.08	72.73	72.73	0.04	0.04
Drexel	CAA	0.08	0.08	37.50	37.50	-0.02	-0.02
Minnesota	B10	0.08	0.08	46.88	46.88	-0.00	-0.00
Monmouth	MAAC	0.08	0.08	35.48	35.48	-0.02	-0.02
Nebraska	B10	0.08	0.08	68.75	68.75	0.03	0.03
Miami OH	MAC	0.08	0.08	45.16	45.16	-0.01	-0.01
Ohio St.	B10	0.08	0.08	75.00	75.00	0.04	0.04
Grand Canyon	WAC	0.08	0.08	65.62	65.62	0.02	0.02
Georgia Tech	ACC	0.08	0.08	40.62	40.62	-0.01	-0.01
Longwood	BSth	0.06	0.06	13.33	13.33	-0.04	-0.04
Saint Mary's	WCC	0.06	0.06	84.85	84.85	0.04	0.04
San Francisco	WCC	0.06	0.06	53.12	53.12	0.00	0.00
Denver	Sum	0.06	0.06	46.43	46.43	-0.00	-0.00
Florida Gulf Coast	ASun	0.06	0.06	64.52	64.52	0.02	0.02
George Mason	A10	0.06	0.06	48.48	48.48	-0.00	-0.00
Dayton	A10	0.06	0.06	45.16	45.16	-0.01	-0.01
North Florida	ASun	0.06	0.06	36.67	36.67	-0.01	-0.01
Ohio	MAC	0.06	0.06	43.33	43.33	-0.01	-0.01
Saint Joseph's	A10	0.05	0.05	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
South Alabama	SB	0.05	0.05	40.00	40.00	-0.01	-0.01
Georgia	SEC	0.05	0.05	54.55	54.55	0.00	0.00
Memphis	Amer	0.05	0.05	61.76	61.76	0.01	0.01
Michigan	B10	0.05	0.05	79.41	79.41	0.03	0.03
Cleveland St.	Horz	0.05	0.05	32.35	32.35	-0.02	-0.02
East Carolina	Amer	0.05	0.05	33.33	33.33	-0.02	-0.02
North Carolina A&T	MEAC	0.05	0.05	56.25	56.25	0.01	0.01
Northern Illinois	MAC	0.05	0.05	36.67	36.67	-0.01	-0.01
Rhode Island	A10	0.05	0.05	78.12	78.12	0.03	0.03
Houston Baptist	Slnd	0.05	0.05	10.71	10.71	-0.04	-0.04
Buffalo	MAC	0.05	0.05	75.76	75.76	0.03	0.03
Little Rock	SB	0.05	0.05	20.00	20.00	-0.03	-0.03
Norfolk St.	MEAC	0.05	0.05	43.33	43.33	-0.01	-0.01
San Diego	WCC	0.05	0.05	56.67	56.67	0.01	0.01
Tulane	Amer	0.05	0.05	45.16	45.16	-0.00	-0.00
Youngstown St.	Horz	0.05	0.05	20.00	20.00	-0.03	-0.03
Clemson	ACC	0.05	0.05	71.88	71.88	0.02	0.02
Florida St.	ACC	0.05	0.05	64.52	64.52	0.01	0.01
Miami FL	ACC	0.05	0.05	70.97	70.97	0.02	0.02
Syracuse	ACC	0.05	0.05	60.61	60.61	0.01	0.01
Illinois Chicago	Horz	0.03	0.03	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Cal St. Northridge	BW	0.03	0.03	14.29	14.29	-0.02	-0.02
Delaware St.	MEAC	0.03	0.03	6.67	6.67	-0.02	-0.02
Evansville	MVC	0.03	0.03	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Montana St.	BSky	0.03	0.03	36.67	36.67	-0.01	-0.01
Chicago St.	WAC	0.03	0.03	3.33	3.33	-0.03	-0.03
FIU	CUSA	0.03	0.03	37.93	37.93	-0.01	-0.01
Illinois	B10	0.03	0.03	41.94	41.94	-0.00	-0.00
Indiana	B10	0.03	0.03	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
Iowa	B10	0.03	0.03	42.42	42.42	-0.00	-0.00
Michigan St.	B10	0.03	0.03	87.88	87.88	0.02	0.02
Oklahoma	B12	0.03	0.03	58.06	58.06	0.00	0.00
Portland	WCC	0.03	0.03	24.14	24.14	-0.01	-0.01
Purdue	B10	0.03	0.03	82.35	82.35	0.02	0.02
Valparaiso	MVC	0.03	0.03	43.33	43.33	-0.00	-0.00
Arizona St.	P12	0.03	0.03	64.52	64.52	0.01	0.01
Elon	CAA	0.03	0.03	40.00	40.00	-0.01	-0.01
New Orleans	Slnd	0.03	0.03	42.86	42.86	-0.00	-0.00
Oregon St.	P12	0.03	0.03	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
UCF	Amer	0.03	0.03	59.38	59.38	0.00	0.00
Belmont	OVC	0.02	0.02	72.73	72.73	0.01	0.01
Houston	Amer	0.02	0.02	78.79	78.79	0.01	0.01
North Carolina	ACC	0.02	0.02	71.43	71.43	0.01	0.01
Richmond	A10	0.02	0.02	37.50	37.50	-0.01	-0.01
Saint Louis	A10	0.02	0.02	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
South Carolina St.	MEAC	0.02	0.02	26.67	26.67	-0.01	-0.01
Virginia	ACC	0.02	0.02	93.94	93.94	0.02	0.02
Virginia Tech	ACC	0.02	0.02	65.62	65.62	0.01	0.01
Wake Forest	ACC	0.02	0.02	35.48	35.48	-0.01	-0.01
Washington	P12	0.02	0.02	62.50	62.50	0.01	0.01